Being Trans Is Not a Social Contagion

The Argument and/or Question

Anti-trans activists, “gender critical” proponents, and TERFs often claim that transgender identities - particularly among youth - are spreading through “social contagion.” Their arguments typically include variations of:

• “There’s a sudden epidemic of transgender-identifying youth, especially teenage girls”
• “Kids are being influenced by social media to think they’re transgender”
• “Peer pressure is causing vulnerable teens to identify as trans for social status”
• “Rapid-Onset Gender Dysphoria (ROGD) explains the increase in trans-identifying youth”
• “Schools and the internet are indoctrinating children into transgender ideology”
• “The dramatic increase in transgender youth proves it’s a social trend, not a real condition”
• “Trans identification is spreading like a contagious disease among friend groups”

These arguments typically depend on misrepresenting statistics, cherry-picking anecdotes, and ignoring the actual scientific research on gender identity development.

The Answer and/or Response

When confronting the “social contagion” narrative, consider these effective counter-strategies:

• Challenge the flawed methodology: Point out that the ROGD hypothesis originated from a single study with serious methodological flaws - it surveyed only parents (not transgender youth themselves) recruited from anti-trans websites, creating significant selection bias. The journal that published it later issued a correction acknowledging its limitations.
• Present the contradicting evidence: Cite the multiple peer-reviewed studies that directly contradict the social contagion theory. The data shows transgender youth typically realize their identity long before coming out, transgender youth assigned male at birth outnumber those assigned female at birth (contrary to the “vulnerable girls” narrative), and the percentage of transgender-identifying youth has remained relatively stable.
• Explain increased visibility: Distinguish between an increase in people identifying as transgender and an increase in transgender people existing. Greater social acceptance, better access to information, and reduced stigma allow people who have always been transgender to come out rather than remain hidden.
• Highlight historical context: Remind people that transgender individuals have existed throughout history across cultures. What’s new isn’t transgender identity itself but the terminology, visibility, and access to supportive resources.
• Address the bullying contradiction: If being transgender were a way to gain social status or escape stigma, we wouldn’t see transgender youth experiencing significantly higher rates of bullying and harassment than their cisgender peers - yet the data clearly shows they do.
• Explain the harm of this narrative: Emphasize that promoting the “social contagion” theory causes real harm by delaying access to care, damaging family relationships, fueling discriminatory legislation, and increasing stigma against an already vulnerable population.
• Use the medical consensus: Major medical organizations including the American Academy of Pediatrics, the American Psychological Association, and the World Professional Association for Transgender Health reject the social contagion theory and support gender-affirming approaches.

Remember that those promoting the social contagion narrative are rarely interested in evidence that contradicts their position. Your goal should be to provide accurate information for those reading who genuinely seeking to understand, not to convince those who are ideologically committed to anti-trans positions.

Discussion

The Origins of the “Social Contagion” Theory

The concept of ROGD (Rapid-Onset Gender Dysphoria) emerged from a 2018 paper by Dr. Lisa Littman published in PLOS One. This study surveyed parents - not transgender youth themselves - who were recruited primarily from websites known to be critical of transgender identities and gender-affirming care. The study’s methodology was so problematic that PLOS One later issued a correction, clarifying that “Rapid-onset gender dysphoria (ROGD) is not a formal mental health diagnosis” and acknowledging significant limitations in the research design. 12

Despite these methodological flaws, the concept has been weaponized in political debates and used to justify legislation restricting gender-affirming care for transgender youth. The American Psychological Association and 61 other health care organizations have signed a letter denouncing the validity of ROGD as a clinical diagnosis. 3

My tongue-in-cheek response to people who like to champion this idea/concept is that it is better called “Rapid Onset Parental Discovery.”

What the Research Actually Shows

No Evidence of “Sudden” Identity Development

A 2022 study published in the Journal of Pediatrics analyzed data from 10 Canadian gender clinics and found that 98.3% of young people seeking gender-affirming care had realized more than a year prior that they might be transgender. This directly contradicts the “rapid onset” narrative.

As Dr. Diane Ehrensaft, director of mental health at the University of California, San Francisco, Child and Adolescent Gender Center, explains: “It is not rapid-onset gender dysphoria. It’s rapid-onset parental discovery.” Many transgender youth conceal their identity for extended periods before coming out to parents, often out of fear of rejection or safety concerns.4

Debunking the “Female Susceptibility” Claim

A key component of the social contagion theory is the assertion that youth assigned female at birth are particularly susceptible to this supposed phenomenon. However, a comprehensive study published in Pediatrics in 2022 examined data from the CDC’s Youth Risk Behavior Survey across 16 states and found:

• In 2017, 2.4% of adolescents identified as transgender or gender diverse, with an AMAB:AFAB ratio of 1.5:1
• In 2019, 1.6% of adolescents identified as transgender or gender diverse, with an AMAB:AFAB ratio of 1.2:1

In both years, transgender adolescents assigned male at birth outnumbered those assigned female at birth, directly contradicting the social contagion hypothesis. Moreover, the overall percentage of adolescents identifying as transgender actually decreased between 2017 and 2019, which is “incongruent with a social contagion hypothesis that posits social contagion.” 5 6

Transgender Youth Face Higher Rates of Bullying

Another claim within the social contagion narrative is that youth identify as transgender to escape stigma associated with being lesbian, gay, or bisexual. If this were true, we would expect transgender youth to experience less bullying than their cisgender LGB peers.

The data shows the opposite. The Pediatrics study found that transgender and gender-diverse youth experienced significantly higher rates of bullying than cisgender sexual minority youth, who themselves faced more bullying than cisgender heterosexual youth:

• In 2019, 45.4% of transgender youth reported being bullied at school, compared to 28.7% of cisgender LGB youth and 16.6% of cisgender heterosexual youth

As Dr. Jack Turban, one of the study’s authors, stated: “The idea that attempts to flee sexual minority stigma drive teenagers to come out as transgender is absurd, especially to those of us who provide treatment to [transgender and gender diverse] youth.” 7

The Real Factors Behind Increasing Visibility

If not social contagion, what explains the increasing visibility of transgender people in recent years?

Greater Access to Information

Today’s youth have unprecedented access to information about gender identity through the internet. This allows them to find language to describe their experiences and connect with communities that share similar feelings - experiences that previous generations may have lacked words to express. This is not the same as social contagion; it’s about having access to knowledge that helps people understand themselves. 8

Increased Acceptance in Some Contexts

While transgender people still face significant discrimination, there has been some increase in societal acceptance in certain contexts. This may allow more people to come out rather than suppressing their identity. As Jean Twenge’s research on Generation Z has shown, young adults today are more likely to identify as LGBTQ+ than previous generations, but this reflects greater openness rather than a “trend.” 9

Historical Context: Trans People Have Always Existed

Transgender historian Jules Gill-Peterson notes that children have been receiving medical transition care for as long as such care has been available, and social transitions date back even further. Trans people have existed throughout history across cultures - they were simply forced into secrecy or lacked modern terminology to describe their experiences. 10

The Harm of the “Social Contagion” Narrative

The social contagion theory isn’t just scientifically unfounded - it’s actively harmful. When this narrative is promoted:

1. It delays access to potentially life-saving care: Multiple studies show that gender-affirming care reduces depression and suicidal thoughts among transgender youth.
2. It damages family relationships: Parents who believe their child’s identity is just a “phase” or result of “influence” may reject their child’s authentic self, leading to strained relationships and poorer mental health outcomes.
3. It fuels discriminatory legislation: The concept has been used to justify bans on gender-affirming care in multiple states, despite opposition from major medical organizations including the American Academy of Pediatrics.
4. It increases stigma: By portraying transgender identities as inauthentic or the result of manipulation, this narrative contributes to broader societal stigma.

Why “Rapid Onset Parental Discovery” Better Explains the Data

The term “Rapid Onset Parental Discovery” (ROPD) offers a more evidence-based explanation for what parents perceive as their child’s “sudden” transgender identity. This concept acknowledges several important realities that ROGD ignores:

• Extended periods of private questioning: Research shows that transgender youth typically spend significant time—often years—privately questioning their gender identity before disclosing to others. A 2022 study in the Journal of Pediatrics found that the average age when youth first experienced gender incongruence was 10.4 years, but the average age when they disclosed this to their parents was 14.9 years - a gap of approximately 4.5 years.
• Strategic disclosure: Many transgender youth carefully calculate when and how to come out based on safety concerns. They often test the waters with friends or trusted adults before approaching parents, especially if they anticipate negative reactions. This creates a situation where parents are often the last to know, making the revelation seem “sudden” from their perspective.
• Retrospective recognition of signs: After a child comes out, many parents retrospectively recognize earlier signs of gender dysphoria they had previously misinterpreted or dismissed. As one parent in a follow-up study noted: “Looking back, the signs were there for years, but I didn’t have the framework to understand them.”
• Confirmation from longitudinal studies: Research tracking transgender youth over time consistently shows that gender identity development follows a gradual process rather than a sudden onset. The “TransYouth Project,” the first large-scale longitudinal study of transgender children in the U.S., has found that transgender children’s gender identities remain stable over time—contradicting the notion that these identities emerge suddenly due to external influence.

What appears to parents as ‘rapid onset’ is more accurately described as ‘rapid disclosure’ - the culmination of a long internal process that has finally reached the point where the young person feels ready or compelled to share their identity with others.

This reframing from ROGD to ROPD is not merely semantic—it fundamentally shifts our understanding from pathologizing transgender identities to recognizing the complex social dynamics that influence how and when young people disclose their gender identity to parents. It also places the focus where it belongs: on creating supportive environments where youth feel safe to express their authentic selves earlier, rather than suffering in silence for years.

Conclusion

The scientific evidence is clear: being transgender is not a social contagion. The “rapid onset gender dysphoria” hypothesis fails to withstand scientific scrutiny and contradicts the lived experiences of transgender people themselves.

Rather than viewing transgender identities through a lens of suspicion, we should approach them with the same respect and understanding we give to other aspects of human diversity. The focus should be on providing supportive environments where all people can explore and express their authentic selves without fear of rejection or discrimination.

As Dr. Alex S. Keuroghlian, director of the National LGBTQIA+ Health Education Center at the Fenway Institute, concluded: “The hypothesis that transgender and gender diverse youth assigned female at birth identify as transgender due to social contagion does not hold up to scrutiny and should not be used to argue against the provision of gender-affirming medical care for adolescents.” 11

Citations